If heads comes up 5 times in a row, is the next flip more likely to be tails?
The answer is "no." A coin has no memory, so no matter what just came up, the probability of the next flip is always 50:50. Even so, many people feel that "it must be time for tails to come up." This is called the gambler’s fallacy. Flip the coin yourself and see.
Why does this feel confusing? The feeling that "a long streak is unlikely" is correct — six heads in a row is rare. But after heads has already appeared 5 times, the probability that the 6th flip is heads is still exactly 50%. The coin does not "remember" previous results. This is called an independent trial.
Flip the coin
Total flips 0Current streak 0
When the same side appears 4 or more times in a row, prediction buttons appear for "what comes next." Make a prediction and see whether it actually comes true.